“He makes the point that Villar’s 30+ % is stable and that this loyal clique will stay with Manny come hell or high water. Perhaps.”
by Ducky Paredes
It’s early days yet but a media colleague who has made up his mind by going all-out for Manny Villar for President sent me his analysis on the popularity ratings published by Social Weather Stations (SWS) which has Sen. Noynoy Aquino at over 60% and Sen. Manny Villar at 37 percent. Apparently, what riles him is that Noynoy has taken the popularity lead from Villar who was topping it before Noynoy’s initial and sudden surge.
Says my colleague: “The disparity may be wide but what’s surprising and equally noteworthy was Villar gained four percentage points in the SWS third quarter survey from his earlier rating of 33 percent during the June survey despite the barrage of pro-Noynoy propaganda being dished out by a popular TV network and even by sympathetic print media.
“The latest SWS survey is instructive of how Villar managed to maintain his core of supporters, which has been impregnable at a solid 33 percent to 37 percent, despite the rise of the ‘Noynoy phenomenon’ and the relentless attacks on his integrity on the C-5 double insertion probe.”
He makes the point that Villar’s 30+ % is stable and that this loyal clique will stay with Manny come hell or high water. Perhaps.
He may have a point there, though. Compared to other opposition presidential bets, Manny has done better despite Noynoy’s entry and phenomenal numbers. Estrada lost seven percentage points to 18 percent from his previous 25 percent; Chiz from 20 percent to 15 percent or a decline of 5 percentage points; Mar Roxas, who slid to being a vice-presidential bet, got 12 percent from a previous 20 percent; Loren, who is now open to being a running-mate, shed 10 percentage points to 5 percent from 15 percent and even pro-admin Noli, who appears not running, also shed 11 percentage points to 8 percent from 19 percent.
Noynoy’s 60 percent is what everyone but Villar, who also gained a few points lost. But, he argues that Noynoy’s high ratings were expected “considering the popularity of his parents.”
My media colleague then makes the point that these surveys were taken
from Sept 18 to 21 before Ondoy and Pepeng. “Villar mobilized all his resources in rescuing typhoon victims trapped in their flooded homes and workplaces at the height of Ondoy, which was a Saturday, while Noynoy was barnstorming Mindanao that stormy weekend only to return mid-Sunday.”
I disagree with that, Heck, I was in Mindanao too for a weekend of golf in Cagayan de Oro and Del Monte and also came back Sunday night to find my two-month old Nissan Grand Livina disabled – for a whole month now (while waiting its turn for repairs in a crowded Nissan dealer’s service shop) – by having been immersed in flood waters. One can’t fault anyone for being caught unawares by the flood since even Pagasa and the MMDA Food Monitoring people apparently did not know what was coming.
My colleague points out that, despite Manny’s efforts at relief work, Noynoy got better media coverage. He points out that “there was even a cheap attempt to link Villar to premature and shameless campaigning when food rations turned up with his name and signature orange color on the Styrofoam boxes” while “Noynoy’s yellow army of relief volunteers with their matching yellow relief bags” went unnoticed.
My take on this is that we ought to thank everyone who helped out – politicians, TV stations, newspapers, NGOs and so on. In fact, I am disappointed that the party-lists who have sitting congressmen with their annual pork barrel allotments did not do more, if they even did anything at all.
He also criticizes Noynoy, who cut his Mindanao sortie short ostensibly because of the flood “preferred to meet with Estrada on that Sunday evening, even taking along his sisters instead of visiting the swelling evacuation centers.”
That seems like nit picking to me. Besides, if one is not exploiting the flood by assisting in the relief efforts for purely political purposes, why even compare what Tweedle-dee and Tweedle-dum are doing?
My colleague’s fearless forecast is that “Villar’s core supporters will not forget his own privately-funded relief and rescue efforts in the next survey round, which could also extend to other vacillating sectors now noticing Villar’s ability to respond during national emergencies without much fanfare and dramatics.”
I frankly cannot see that anyone’s personal effort for the flood victims will even rate any notice or increase one’s popularity. In fact, among those who were actual flood victims (as I am), what remains is some resentment that this damned government has done such a lousy job of everything!
As for the surveys done by the SWS and others, these are current readings of permanently inconstant fevers that really do not mean much. How many times have the survey front-runners lost elections?
My colleague says: “Let’s not forget that there’s still the 6 percent undecideds and another 4 percent who has yet to form an opinion or a total of 10 percent that’s are up for grabs in the next SWS survey.”
I have a deeper respect for the Pinoy voter. Give him a good campaign, touch his heart, connect with him and you can win an election. The SWS and other surveys have always meant nothing to me. Surveys are like pompous, self-important politicos who, if you ignore them, immediately realize that they really do not matter too much in our lives.
We often give these silly surveys too much importance.
I have my personal choices for the coming elections which will probably not change – two presidents, one vice president, about six senators, one mayor and the rest are all up for grabs to be decided on only on May 10, 2010 itself.
To the candidates, give us a good campaign and who knows that we voters may change our minds even on those we have already chosen.
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hvp 10.27.09
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