“The winner (FVR) had 23.58% of the votes; the second-placer (Miriam) had 19.72%; then, 3rd (Cojuangco), 18.17%; the rest – 14.64%; 10.32%; 10.1%; and, the last was at 3.40%.”
by Ducky Paredes
We are all reading too much into the current surveys on voting preferences for President, with each uptick or downtick amplified several times over. Good grief, the campaign has not yet even begun. The actual campaign – issues hurled at candidates and their reactions to these; results of their sorties in certain bailiwicks (their own and others’) — has yet to officially begin.
The pace of the individual campaigns will matter, too, and even such incidentals as keeping to schedule and reactions to what they say at each stop will sway voters one way or the other.
To say that there are only 90 days left before the actual day that we pick our next leader is to give too much value to the pre-campaign period. We do not have only 90 days; what we have is 90 days more.
The way that they campaign, the support that candidates will get from the power brokers in each locality (and many of these will shift with the prevailing political winds) and how the voters will react to the candidates in the flesh will all impact on the final results. Add to that also the vote buying that is part and parcel of every election. We can automate the ballot and computerize, digitize and electronically transmit the results but buying votes will be done the same old away –with paper money – unless a way can be found to transmit these electronically through the ATMs
Right now, according to the latest surveys, we have two candidates taking (between them) close to 70% of the votes; a third one at 15% or so and the rest in single digits. There are ten candidates for President. If we believe that this scenario is close to what will be the final result, we may just as well forget the elections and proclaim one of the top two as the President.
But, it will not work that way. In the 1992 elections, we had almost as many candidates (actually, 7).
This is what happened then:
The winner (FVR) had 23.58% of the votes; the second-placer (Miriam) had 19.72%; then, 3rd (Cojuangco), 18.17%; the rest – 14.64%; 10.32%; 10.1%; and, the last was at 3.40%.
The present leaders in the current surveys have ratings that are too high to maintain for the duration of the campaign. In the same way that, early on, when the results had Noynoy Aquino at over 60%, one immediately knew that this could not be anywhere near what the final results would be. There was just no way that anyone could keep that huge a lead all the way to Election Day. Thus, that his perceived lead would certainly be eroded had to be a given.
Of course, there is no way that anyone will take more than half of the votes in a ten-man race (or even in a four or five-man contest).
I will wager that no one among the candidates will end up over the 30-percent mark. The more likely result will be closer to those in 1992. Consider, too, that we have a better crop of candidates this time around. Even now, many of us find ourselves veering towards a candidate, and then stopping ourselves, to look more closely at the others, too.
Despite what the surveys seem to tell us – that their current results are set in stone – individually, between now and May 10, 2010, many of us will be changing horses in mid-stream or will at least give that thought serious consideration – as we actually should – to choose the very best man for the job of getting this country back on track, away from corruption and the culture of impunity that has taken us over like some dread disease.
If you have a favored candidate, stick with him; don’t believe those surveys which have been wrong more times than they have been correct to the last percentage point. If you believe in someone, campaign for him. That is the way that elections are won, not by mindlessly relying on what the surveys say.
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I was pleasantly surprised, at the birthday party of Alyansa ng Media at Showbiz (AMS) Partylist nominee Rolly “Lakay” Gonzalo’s birthday that there was a proto-type of the brine immersion machine bought by the National Agribusiness Corp. (Nabcor) from Integrated Refrigeration System and Services, Inc. (IRSSI). This was a much smaller version and was used only to cool the beer,
In 90 seconds the beer after being immersed in the brine at minus 30 degrees Celsius was as cold as beer that had been in the freezer for hours. Another minute and it was almost frozen solid. How I wish they would make a small device that would be affordable for restaurants. Then, no one would ever need to put ice in their beer.
AMS Partylist has three nominees: Rolly Gonzalo, broadcaster and TV host, President of the Liga ng Mga Brodkaster ng Pilipinas, National Press Club VP and Chairman of Profile Magazine; Romy Suzara, veteran Film and TV director, and Leo Martinez, Movie and TV Actor, Chairman of the Kapisanan ng mga Artista ng Pelikulang Pilipino art Telebisyon (KAPP), Director-General of the Film Academy of the Philippines, Chairman of the Actors Workshop Foundation (AWF), Member of the Films Rating Board and Founding Member of Repertory Philippines.
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hvp 02.02.10
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