“At current growth rates, the Philippines would be as rich as today’s China in 25 years.”
by Ducky Paredes
Bert Hofman, the World Bank’s Country Director for the Philippines looks at the Philippines: “At current growth rates, the Philippines would be as rich as today’s China in 25 years.
“In roughly half a century from today, it would reach income levels of Malaysia today to become an upper middle income country, and seventy years from now it will reach the $12,000 per capita high income threshold that the World Bank uses for its country classification. For comparison, the average high income country currently has a per capita income of $36,000, or more than twenty times the level of the Philippines now.”
Of course, if, in 2035, one’s country is as rich as China was in 2010, that is not any sort of achievement since we would still be 25 or perhaps even more years behind (perhaps, by that time) the rest of the world!
(While OFWs, working in other lands, contribute to our economy through whatever they send home, their contribution to the economy where they work is several times more than the pittance they contribute to the Philippine economy.)
In his speech last week to the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines (FOCAP), Hofman wondered: “Could the Philippines possibly grow at rates in the order of 7-8 percent per year for decades in a row, much like its illustrious neighbors have done? What does it take to do so, and how would a government set on achieving such a performance go about? Since 1950, 13 economies have grown at an average rate of 7 percent a year or more for 25 years or longer.”
It can be done because it has been done by a lot of other countries. Why, then, didn’t we in the Philippines also do what our neighbors did, at the time that they did it?
The World Bank sponsored commission on Growth and Development investigated what these countries did to grow rapidly on a consistent basis.
Says Hofman: “According to the Commission, fast sustained growth is not a miracle; it is attainable for developing countries with the ‘right mix of ingredients.’
“What the book observes is that the rapid growers did five things right: they fully exploited the world economy; they maintained macroeconomic stability; they mustered high rates of saving and investment; they let markets allocate resources; and they had committed, credible, and capable governments.“
There! That is what has derailed us – the lack of a “committed, credible and capable” government. Instead, for the most part, our governments have been obsessed with the politics of the moment, not even politics of a higher kind or any commitment to an ideology. We have sacrificed so much to petty politics. That is why we are headed for the dustbin of history.
Hofman continues: “Finally, governance continues to be mentioned by domestic and international investors as being a critical factor in their investment decisions. While the Philippines enjoys a reasonable quality of civil service and regulation, anti-corruption and policy consistency seems to fall short of the standards that mobile investors expect nowadays of a lower middle income country. In particular, more consistency in policies and their implementation and enforcement would benefit the Philippines’ investment climate. While improvements in these areas are hard to achieve, credible commitment to more consistent policies should be high up the agenda for any government, and actions that reinforce such commitment would be much welcomed by the business community.”
The best way for us to bring in factories and other investments into this country so that no Pinoy ever has to be an OFW is by ridding ourselves of the corrupt officials and move away from the corrupt practices that we have become used to. Who of the presidentiables can inspire us to move away from the old ways and change for the better?
* * *
Who we will get most of our ballots on May 10, 2010 will be a very important determinant of where we will eventually end up. Gloria is not the issue. What she did by way of enriching herself is an issue because whatever one steals through corruption takes away from everyone else and impoverishes the rest of us at the rate that the corrupt enrich themselves.
What is important in the new President is that he will have the capacity to lead and to inspire the rest to move forward in the right direction,
* * *
A reaction from a reader:” I agree with your characterization that “acquisition of personal wealth,” has been the major corrupting element in our political life. In 1965, when FM took over our government, until 2010, a period spanning 45 years, our government has been run under regime of unprecedented corruption. Only one president during this period, the Cory Aquino administration, operated relatively honest governance. Three of the five presidents during this period, FM, Erap and GMA, operated administrations that are characterized by outright plunder. In 1965 when FM took over, we were second to Japan in everything; in 2010 we are the basket case of our region. And the major reason for this decline is undoubtedly the regime of endless plunder covering 45 years, to which our country has been subjected.
“That is why I believe that in this election, the primary consideration in voting for the next president should be who among them will not steal why in office. I hope one of the poll survey firms in our country run a survey with the question: ‘Among the current presidential hopefuls, please indicate who will be the least likely to steal while in office? The responders should rank the current candidates, the candidate perceived to be most honest getting the top rank.” — Hermie Cruz
# # # #
hvp 02.17.10
Post a Comment