Ducky Paredes

“If Gibo will have a chance at winning, we will begin to see this when the campaign for the local elections begins. This is where his party – Lakas-Kampi-CMD — has an advantage.” 

by Ducky Paredes

Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations (SWS) have the top two contenders for the presidency in a dead heat. What is interesting is what the surveys say about the next two contenders – Former President Joseph Estrada and former Secretary of National Defense Gilbert Teodoro.

Pulse Asia had Erap gaining six percentage points in February that brought him up to 18%, just 11 behind Villar who was seven behind Noynoy Aquino. Teodoro was at seven percent,

SWS also noted that Aquino and Villar lost in its just released February survey and “their lost votes appear to have gone to the third- and fourth-ranked candidates: former President Joseph ‘Erap’ M. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, who picked up two points to score 15%, and administration bet Gilberto ‘Gibo’ C. Teodoro of the Lakas-KAMPI-CMD, who also gained by two to 6%.”
           

An interesting survey done  not by a professional group but by  The Campaigns And Images Group, made up of volunteers of the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV) has also documented the same  shift but with a vastly different result

The gist of the survey results was that among young voters,  those in the 18-28 year old bracket and those 29 to 39 years old and is in the No. 3 slot, the PPCRV survey found that Gibo had the support of voters with ages of 18-29 and of those from the age of 29-39. Aquino and Villar are more competitive with the older voters, those with ages from 40 to 51 and those from 52 to 62 years old.

The second PPCRV/Campaign and Images survey, done in February clearly shows Villar ahead  of Noynoy Aquino 32 percent to 23 percent, the reverse of the Pulse Asia survey with Gibo (not Erap) at got 18 percent and Erap down to only 5.75 percent.

The survey was done by volunteers from the Parish Pastoral Council for Responnsible Voting (PPRCV) in Luzon (4,947 respondents), Visayas (1,533) and Mindanao 2,819).

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 Gibo scores heavily with the younger set which make up the majority of the voters.

In fact, he tops most mock elections in schools. E ven in Ateneo where Noynoy is an alumnus and Gibo a La Sallian. He also bested Villar, a UP graduate, in the University of the Philippines. And, of course, Gibo took the mock polls in La Salle.

At the Holy Angel University, Gibo beat Noynoy 2-1, even as Gibo speaks only Ilokano while Noynoy is fluent in Pampango.

 The online presidential polls—philippinepolls.com, philippinedailybrew.com and philippineselection.com—and those conducted over the leading social networking sites has Gibo leading. Again, this is driven by youth power and youth enthusiasm over a presidential candidate who placed No. 1 in the 1989 bar exam, was a youth leader at 15 years old  and the youngest presidential candidate but the most serious student of public policy. Gibo is also the  greatest articulator of cogent and coherent policy prescriptions for the  21^st century issues  at that—as proven in the presidential debates and other public forums this campaign season.

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 If Gibo will have a chance at winning, we will begin to see this when the campaign for the local elections begins. This is where his party – Lakas-Kampi-CMD has an advantage.

Across Central Luzon, Lakas-Kampi-CMD leaders have pledged the victory for Gibo.

In the Visayas, Gibo has he support of more than 30 governors and mayors, led by Gov. Gwen  Garcia of Cebu. These local executives belonging to “One Visayas”—a joint project of the respective Regional Development Councils (RDCs) in the three Visayan regions—have signed separate manifestos of support for Gibo during the recent “Suroy-Suroy sa Sugbu” festival. 

Gov. Ben  Evardone of Eastern Samar, himself a former  youth leader,  forecasts that Gibo would win overwhelmingly, given the broad and across-the-board support for his candidacy.

In Mindanao, the youthful enthusiasm of Gibo supporters, such as Rep. Anton Lagdameo and wife Dawn Zulueta ,  is expected to make Gibo a runaway winner. Gibo also  has the most viable and detailed “Mindanao Agenda,” which covers the areas of securing lasting peace and development initiatives for the region.  The mock poll result  at UP Mindanao also had Gibo winning.

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  “The youth are out-of-the-box thinkers,” explains lawyer Mike Toledo, the former press secretary who is now Gibo’s spokesman and director of the G1BO Media Bureau.

 He notes that the youth are apparently attracted to Gibo’s master plan for sustained growth and lasting peace as laid out in his ‘Sulong Pilipinas’ platform, that comprises education reform, health care, food security, environmental protection, continuation of the public infrastructure build-up, and a tough stance versus crime and terrorism.

  “Because of the youth support, Gibo’s ratings have broken through the double-digit level, and this poll bounce will be complemented by  a minimum 15 percent of votes that will be delivered by the formidable political machinery of Lakas-Kampi-CMD down to the grassroots,” he says.

 Toledo points out that the ruling party has candidates for 170 or 73.9 percent of all House seats, 64 or 80 percent of the 86 gubernatorial posts, 86 or 71 percent of 126 city mayoralty slots, and 1,043 or 69 percent of all seats for municipal mayors.

  “Once the official campaign period for local candidates kicks in later this month, the full weight of the ruling party machinery will kick in – to deliver the decisive number of votes for Gibo in the May 10 presidential polls,” Toledo adds.

If Gilbert Teodoro will pull any surprises, he will have to begin making his move at the end of this month. 

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hvp 03.08.10)

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